National up, Labour slumps in new political poll

The Labour Party has slipped to its lowest vote share since December 2024 in this month’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, while The Opportunity Party (TOP) has topped the five per cent MMP party vote threshold for the first time in a mainstream poll.

The poll sees the National Party gain 0.5 points to 31 per cent, while Labour drops 3.7 points to 27.8 per cent.

The Green Party drops 0.3 points to 10.1 per cent, New Zealand First drops 1.7 points to 9.1 per cent, and the ACT Party gains 0.4 points to 7.3 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori drops 1.9 points to 1.5 per cent, its worst result since March, 2023.

For the minor parties, TOP is on 6.1 per cent, while Women’s Rights are on 1.4 per cent.

New Conservatives are on 0.4 per cent, Vision NZ is on 0.3 per cent, and Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.1 per cent.

The combined projected seats for the government bloc, comprising National, ACT, and New Zealand First, drops one to 61, while projected seats for the Opposition bloc of Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and TOP gains one to 59.

On those numbers, the Government bloc would still be able to form a government.

Prime Minister and Botany MP Christopher Luxon tops the preferred prime minister poll, on 23.2 per cent, up 4.1 points, compared to Labour leader Chris Hipkins on 19.8 per cent.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is on 10.5 per cent and Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is on 4.8 per cent.

ACT leader David Seymour is on 3.8 per cent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf says: “Just 90 days out from the election, the coalition is clinging on by the narrowest possible margin.

“With a seventh party entering Parliament on these numbers for the first time this term, no one party will be feeling comfortable after this month’s poll.

“The big story is TOP surging above the coveted five per cent as Labour slumps to its lowest result since December 2024.

“Te Pāti Māori’s collapse leaves them polling virtually level with the Women’s Rights Party.

“Some will be feeling the pressure more than others. TOP’s gain appears to be coming largely at Labour’s expense, while Luxon will take some comfort from reclaiming the preferred prime minister lead.”