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The Labour Party has fallen to its lowest result since July, 2024, in this month’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, and The Opportunity Party has fallen beneath the five per cent threshold needed to reach parliament if it does not win an electorate seat.
The National Party is down two points to 29.0 per cent, while Labour drops 1.9 points to 25.9 per cent.
The Green Party has gained 3.8 points to 13.9 per cent, while ACT gains 3.2 points to 10.5 per cent.
New Zealand First is down 0.7 points to 8.4 per cent and Te Pāti Māori gains 0.5 points to two per cent.
For the minor parties, Opportunity falls 1.6 points to 4.5 per cent.
NZ Loyal is on 1.5 per cent, Animal Justice is on 1.2 per cent, Women’s Rights is on 0.7 per cent, Vision NZ is on 0.5 per cent, and New Conservatives are on 0.5 per cent.
National drops one seat from last month to 39 and Labour also drops one to 35.
The Greens gain five seats to get 18 and ACT gains five to 14.
New Zealand First falls one seat to 11, while Te Pāti Māori gains one to three.
Opportunity drops from eight projected seats to none.
The combined projected seats for the government bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First is up three seats to 64, while the projected seats for the Opposition bloc of Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity) drops three seats to 56.
On those numbers, the current coalition would be able to form a government.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon remains ahead of Labour leader Chris Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister, falling two points to 21.2 per cent. Hipkins falls 2.9 points to 16.9 per cent.
Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf says: “Labour has fallen to its lowest party vote result in more than two years, while National has opened up its biggest lead on keeping taxes low since December, 2024.
“It’s probably no coincidence that this month National has unveiled its ‘no new taxes’ pledge, while Labour has been announcing billions in new spending without credibly explaining how it will all be paid for.
“Two months out from the election, fiscal credibility and tax looks to be the key battleground.”
